Former U.S. diplomat and Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Ambassador Tibor Nagy, a persistent critic of the Asmara government, has intensified his outspoken warnings regarding the fate of President Isaias Afwerki. The Ambassador explicitly predicted that President Isaias will be forced to flee his country soon, mirroring the escape of past autocrats like Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam.
Ambassador Nagy’s pronouncements come at a time when political analysts are increasingly suggesting that any renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea could result in one of two major outcomes: Ethiopia taking control of the port of Assab, or the ousting of President Isaias Afwerki from power. This warning has reportedly caused alarm and apprehension within the ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) leadership, commonly known as Shabia.
The Dictator’s Destiny: A Historical Parallel Ambassador Nagy has not only continued to voice his criticisms of the Asmara regime but has also actively engaged with anti-Shabia opposition groups. Recently, he publicly disclosed a meeting held in the United States with leaders of the Eritrean Blue Revolution Front (EBRF), which includes the prominent youth movement known as Brigade Nhamedu.
In his public statement (an X post) following the discussion, the Ambassador drew stark historical parallels, saying:
Re Eritrean Blue Revolution Front – honored to meet with diplomatic team member Dawit Teferi. Those convinced things won’t change, remember Louis XVI, Czar Nicholas, Ceaușescu, Mengistu, Gaddafi – their supporters didn’t think so either. History will tell!
By citing authoritarian figures such as Louis XVI, Czar Nicholas, Nicolae Ceaușescu, Mengistu Hailemariam, and Muammar Gaddafi, Ambassador Nagy stressed that President Isaias Afwerki’s ultimate fate will be no different from that of previous dictators who were ultimately forced from power.
Escalation and the End of the Regime
The Ambassador’s renewed focus on the possibility of President Isaias fleeing is particularly significant given the recent surge in tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Military analysts have repeatedly cautioned that if a war breaks out, the outcomes would be momentous.
General Abebe Teklehaymanot, the former Commander of the Ethiopian Air Force, offered a similar assessment months ago, predicting that any conflict could indeed mark the “funeral” of the Shabia regime. Now, with Ambassador Nagy’s comparison to historically deposed strongmen, the message is clear: the current geopolitical volatility, coupled with mounting domestic opposition, suggests that President Isaias’s long hold on power is becoming increasingly precarious. The Eritrean Blue Revolution Front, by actively engaging with high-profile U.S. diplomats like Ambassador Nagy, signals its determination to hasten this predicted end and usher in a new political process.
